Herman Manyora warns Ruto of looming defeat in 2027, explains why

Political analyst Herman Manyora has cautioned President William Ruto of a possible defeat in the 2027 General Election, saying internal power struggles within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) could weaken the party and reshape the political landscape.

Speaking to a local TV station on October 26, Manyora said the infighting in ODM would not benefit Ruto’s camp as some expect, insisting that the changes in the party’s leadership were only creating a hollow movement.

“The forced coup within ODM will not deliver ODM to William Ruto. The ODM they will deliver will be a shell,” said Manyora.

He pointed out that the late Raila Odinga’s political influence in Luo Nyanza was shifting towards younger leaders, particularly Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, who Manyora believes will play a defining role in the coming elections.

William Ruto

“The bigger part of Raila’s Luo Nyanza influence has been inherited by Babu Owino and they will do anything to stop him,” he added.

Manyora further claimed that Raila Odinga’s political losses in past elections were not purely electoral defeats, arguing that in 2007, a different outcome would have emerged if Ruto had been the one facing the same circumstances.

“I don’t think Raila lost elections five times. In 2007, if it was President Ruto and not Raila Odinga running, he would not have let a victory go like that,” Manyora stated.

The University of Nairobi lecturer noted that ODM’s ongoing leadership tensions could fracture traditional voting blocs and open new political alliances ahead of 2027.

Analysts say Manyora’s remarks reflect the growing uncertainty within opposition ranks as new faces like Babu Owino position themselves to inherit Raila’s political mantle.